₹574.0
+1.86% today
· 30d +15.32%
as of 2026-09-04
Price · Daily Candles
“Monte Carlo's Q4 comeback sparks, but negative FCF forecasts cloud long-term growth.”
Monte Carlo Fashion logged a robust Q4 2026, with revenue up 36.11% YoY to ₹280 Cr and operating profit soaring 82.62% YoY. Despite strong fundamentals like a PE of 10.12 and a ROCE of 14.0%, severe projected Free Cash Flow (FCF) compression, including a -50.0% forecast for the second and third halves, raises concerns about future financial health.
BULL CASE
+Q4 2026 revenue increased by 36.11% YoY to ₹280 Cr, showing significant quarterly momentum.
+Operating profit for Q4 2026 surged by 82.62% YoY to ₹34 Cr, with OPM expanding by 3.27% YoY.
+The trailing twelve months PE ratio stands at a modest 10.12, with a dividend yield of 3.64%.
+Annual revenue grew 15.95% YoY to ₹1276 Cr in FY26, accompanied by a 38.06% YoY rise in net profit to ₹112 Cr.
BEAR CASE
−The stock has seen a significant price decline, with returns of -33.63% over the last 6 months and -11.54% over the last year.
−ML predictions indicate weak growth for FCF, with a rank of 0.096 for recent 2-year and 0.0 for stable 7-year forecasts.
−The projected Free Cash Flow compression is severe, with a -50.0% forecast for both H2 and H3, driving a 'model unreliable' intrinsic valuation.
−Despite positive quarterly growth, 3-year CAGR for net profit is negative at -5.44%.
⟳ What Changed
₹ Latest Earnings · Q ending 2026-06-30
REVENUE
₹149 Cr
+7.59% YoY
NET PROFIT
₹-23 Cr
OPM
-1.55%
-4.62pp YoY
EPS
₹-11.3
PE 10.12
Intrinsic value · DCF: N/A — ML model predicts severe Δ FCF compression (h1=-46.5%, h2=-50.0%, h3=-50.0% of mktcap), driving projected FCF negative by year 3 despite healthy current FCF. Treating as forecast outlier rather than reporting a misleading ₹0 valuation. Use the Strategy Fit and ML sections instead.
◇ Sector Position
Monte Carlo's PE of 10.12 and ROCE of 14.0% position it significantly below peers like PAGEIND (PE 55.94, ROCE 68.86%) and MANYAVAR (PE 26.85, ROCE 31.02%) in the Apparel Manufacturing sector.
PEERPEROCE %
MONTECARLO10.1214.0
+ 2 more peers — sign in to view
ML Forward Growth Predictions 🔒
58
SCORE / 100
Overall
6-axis composite of the sections below.
Performance
POSITIVE
55
Valuation
CHEAP
75
Growth
STRONG
71
Profitability
AVERAGE
32
Technicals
NEUTRAL
65
Risk
MODERATE
50
Key Stats
TTM PE
10.12
P/B
1.36
52W HIGH
₹860.95
OFF HIGH
-33.33%
DIV YIELD
3.64%
MKT CAP
₹1205 Cr
◉ Active Signals
MACDBullish4.0419
RSI(14)Bullish64.23
⧉ Strategy Fit 🔒