WEEKLY · MONTHLY · QUARTERLY PRINTS
US Macro Monitor
Published US series pulled live from FRED — nothing estimated or inferred. Each card links to its source series.
Fetched 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC · cached 30 min
RECESSION WATCH
EXPANSION
6 of 8 signals expansionary · Sahm at 0
6 of 8 expansionary / 1 deteriorating / 1 flat.
SIGNAL STRENGTH · DIRECTION OF TRAVEL
Initial Jobless Claims
-4.5%
Unemployment Rate
-4.7%
Credit Card Delinquency
-10.9%
Consumer Sentiment
-15.0%
Yield Curve 10Y − 2Y
-34.2%
Yield Curve 10Y − 3M
-12.8%
Sahm Rule Indicator
-100.0%
Industrial Production
+2.0%
NEXT RELEASES · SCHEDULED
NOV
12
Initial Jobless Claims
DOL · weekly
NOV
13
Consumer Sentiment (prelim)
Michigan · monthly
NOV
15
Industrial Production
Fed · monthly
DEC
04
Unemployment Rate
BLS · monthly
LABOUR & CONSUMER
Credit Card Delinquency
2.85
%
▼
as of 2026-04-01 · 224d BEHIND
Down -6.2% vs a year ago.
FRED · DRCCLACBS
RATES & BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Sahm Rule Indicator
0
■
as of 2026-10-01 · 41d
0.00, well below the 0.50 trigger.
FRED · SAHMREALTIME
Industrial Production
103.95
▲
as of 2026-09-01 · 71d BEHIND
+2.2% vs a year ago — broadly flat.
FRED · INDPRO
Arrow = direction vs the previous print. Card colour = what that means for the economy, which is not the same thing — falling jobless claims is a down-arrow in the data and a green card.
Not shown: ISM PMI left FRED when it went proprietary; earnings guidance isn't a statistical series; AI capex is a news item, not a print. Industrial Production stands in for factory activity; Consumer Sentiment is Michigan's, not the (paid) Conference Board index.
Release calendar: claims Thursdays (DOL) · unemployment first Friday (BLS) · credit-card delinquency quarterly (Fed) · curve daily (Treasury). Next-release dates above are derived from those rules, not a fetched calendar.