WEEKLY · MONTHLY · QUARTERLY PRINTS
US Macro Monitor
Published US series pulled live from FRED — nothing estimated or inferred. Each card links to its source series.
Fetched 2026-09-07 10:03 UTC · cached 30 min
RECESSION WATCH
EXPANSION
5 of 8 signals expansionary · Sahm at -0.07
5 of 8 expansionary / 1 deteriorating / 2 flat.
SIGNAL STRENGTH · DIRECTION OF TRAVEL
Initial Jobless Claims
-1.4%
Unemployment Rate
-4.7%
Credit Card Delinquency
-10.9%
Consumer Sentiment
+4.3%
Yield Curve 10Y − 2Y
-12.8%
Yield Curve 10Y − 3M
+7.4%
Sahm Rule Indicator
-123.3%
Industrial Production
+1.5%
NEXT RELEASES · SCHEDULED
SEP
10
Initial Jobless Claims
DOL · weekly
SEP
11
Consumer Sentiment (prelim)
Michigan · monthly
SEP
15
Industrial Production
Fed · monthly
OCT
02
Unemployment Rate
BLS · monthly
LABOUR & CONSUMER
Credit Card Delinquency
2.85
%
▼
as of 2026-04-01 · 159d BEHIND
Down -6.2% vs a year ago.
FRED · DRCCLACBS
RATES & BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Sahm Rule Indicator
-0.07
▼
as of 2026-08-01 · 37d
-0.07, well below the 0.50 trigger.
FRED · SAHMREALTIME
Industrial Production
102.99
▲
as of 2026-07-01 · 68d BEHIND
+1.1% vs a year ago — broadly flat.
FRED · INDPRO
Arrow = direction vs the previous print. Card colour = what that means for the economy, which is not the same thing — falling jobless claims is a down-arrow in the data and a green card.
Not shown: ISM PMI left FRED when it went proprietary; earnings guidance isn't a statistical series; AI capex is a news item, not a print. Industrial Production stands in for factory activity; Consumer Sentiment is Michigan's, not the (paid) Conference Board index.
Release calendar: claims Thursdays (DOL) · unemployment first Friday (BLS) · credit-card delinquency quarterly (Fed) · curve daily (Treasury). Next-release dates above are derived from those rules, not a fetched calendar.